Conflicts Usher in New Saudi Succession

9 November 2009
Two wars have caused an upheaval in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's power base and shifted power and influence to the second generation, that is, the grandsons of founder King Abd-al-Aziz Al Saud.

These are the Zaydi Huthists' war that is raging at present in the Sa'dah and Imran region in northern Yemen and whose flames have spread to the south of the kingdom, and the war on al-Qa'ida which started inside the kingdom but has now shifted more dangerously to Yemen where its branch in the Arabian peninsula is based under the leadership of Abu-Basir Nasir al-Wuhayshi.

General Khalid Bin-Sultan, deputy and son of Defence Minister Prince Sultan Bin-Abd-al-Aziz (Prince Sultan is suffering from an incurable disease, has not returned to the kingdom for almost a year, and is at present in Morocco) has risen rapidly through the ranks as a result of the Huthi war in which the Saudis have engaged all their land, air, and naval forces. He is overseeing all military operations and has assumed his father's responsibilities in full.

Meanwhile Prince Muhammad Bin-Nayif, deputy and son of Prince Nayif, has become the top security official in the country and the de facto interior minister as a result of the war on al-Qa'ida. His father has been moved over to the post of second deputy prime minister, a post that had remained vacant for 10 years since Prince Sultan became the crown prince. Many believe that Prince Nayif now has the best chance of succeeding his brother Prince Sultan as crown prince whether he becomes king or passes away.

It is noticed that this gradual progression - that is, having the second generation sons hold the principal posts occupied by their fathers -is at the expense of the first generation, creating a fundamental change in the succession process, and being carried out calmly, imposed as a fait accompli.

Saudi King Abdallah Bin-Abd-al-Aziz is giving his blessing and support to this process of succession, but in his own time. He took everyone by surprise when he set the first precedent officially by appointing Prince Mansur Bin-Mit'ab Bin-Abd-al-Aziz minister of municipal and rural affairs in succession to his father who had boycotted the cabinet sessions to protest the appointment of his brother Prince Nayif, who is younger than him, as the second deputy prime minister. One of the ruling family's traditions is that no younger prince should chair any meeting or cabinet session in which older princes than him are taking part.

King Abdallah, who many describe as the 'reformist king', is avoiding taking decisive actions that change the existing equations on the ground and trying to maintain the power centres as they are without change and this has worked to the advantage of the young princes by promoting them to the top posts in lieu of their fathers.

The question that imposes itself forcefully concerns the stances of the sons of King Abd-al-Aziz who are occupying posts which the grandsons have leapt over. Prince Abd-al-Rahman hold the deputy defence minister's post and Prince Ahmad is holding the deputy interior minister's post while the chances of Prince Salman, the Amir of Riyadh who was aspiring to become the crown prince and is managing the family's affairs, have apparently receded in favour of Prince Nayif. The same applies to Prince Mish'al, chairman of the Allegiance Commission; Prince Nawwaf, the former intelligence chief; and lastly Prince Talal Bin-Abd-al-Aziz whose star shone and he stopped his opposition after King Abdallah brought him close and made him one of his advisers.

There are also princes among the grandsons who are competing to occupy roles in the regime' cake such as Prince Abd-al-Aziz Bin-Fahd who sits at the top of massive media empire whose uncles from Al al-Ibrahim are managing (and what is meant here are television channels like Al-Arabiya and MBC and their several branches), Prince Al-Walid Bin-Talal the owner of a massive financial empire and some of its media offshoots (the Rotana channels), Prince Mit'ab Bin-Abdallah (the assistant to the National Guards commander), and his brother and son of the king Prince Abd-al-Aziz Bin-Abdallah Bin-Abd-al-Aziz who is now his father's personal envoy in many issues, especially the Syrian dossier.

While the process of succession in the defence, interior, and municipal and rural affairs ministries has practically been resolved the post of crown prince is expected to be the centre of competition. Will General Prince Khalid Bin-Sultan succeed his father as crown prince as he has succeeded him in the defence ministry? Will Prince Muhammad Bin-Nayif occupy this post if his father became the crown prince if something happened to Prince Sultan or he became king in future if it became vacant?

It is possible to say that reaching such results and ponderings would be somewhat hasty. The issue of succession is still in its early stages and so are the two wars on the Huthists and Al-Qa'ida. Any setback in these two wars might have a negative impact on its two heroes, either individually or jointly, especially as outside circles and regional forces are involved in them and this applies more specifically to the war with the Huthists.

What can be concluded so far is that Al-Sudayri's wing in the family has started to regain its bases and tip the balance in its favour through its sons' rising stars and occupation of the two most important posts in the state, namely, security (Muhammad Bin-Nayif) and defence (Prince Khalid Bin-Sultan) where the weapons, tanks, aircraft, and massive budgets are.

It is our opinion that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is facing a volatile period. Even if the war on the Huthists was resolved in Jabal Dukhan or elsewhere due to the massive difference in the balances of power it would still be difficult to say that its danger would recede. This war might continue for many years and exhaust the kingdom because Iran is behind it, according to official Yemeni accusations. The same can be said about Al-Qa'ida's war on the Saudi regime after it found a base for itself in neighbouring Yemen which is drifting quickly towards the ranks of failed states.

The future of the two wars' princes depends on the outcomes, nor should one forget the growing influence of Iran north of the kingdom in southern Iraq, and in some neighbouring Gulf countries. On top of all this, there is a strong chance that confrontations will escalate during the pilgrimage season.